With the first quarter of 2023 just around the corner, economists and business leaders are offering wildly different predictions as to what next year’s economy will look like. The good news for managers is that HR advisors and management-consulting firms are more optimistic about the direction staffing will take.
Economic Downturn: Sharp, Mild or Somewhere In Between?
While CEOs and analysts agree the current economic downturn isn’t over yet, Business Insider reports that predictions about its length and severity vary widely:
- FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam offers one of the bleakest assessments, predicting a worldwide recession in 2023. His view may be influenced by the company’s recent earnings whiplash. FedEx was one of the transport companies whose profits soared during the pandemic when at-home shopping surged. As pandemic conditions have receded and profits have fallen, the company has been forced to close offices and raise rates.
- In contrast, JP Morgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, who a few months ago predicted a hard recession “or worse” next year, now expect it to be milder, thanks to higher-than-expected consumer savings and stable credit-card debt.
- Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon offered a less definitive prediction, saying only that the “global economy continues to face significant headwinds.”
- Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. economist at BoA Global Research, says the U.S. “could see six months of weakness in the labor market.” Gapen predicts that unemployment will rise a couple of percentage points during that time.
- Sean Snaith of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Forecasting is more optimistic, predicting a “Pasta Bowl” recession: “It will last all four quarters but will not be deep.” Snaith believes that consumer price inflation will begin a slow decline in the second quarter.
In the face of so much disagreement and uncertainty about the direction of the economy, experts are surprisingly confident about recruitment trends in Q1 2023.
High Employment Demand for Digital and IT Talent
Economists say that given the economic uncertainty going forward, employers will generally be cautious about hiring new employees during Q1. This will not be the case with digital and technical talent, however: Online certification provider Simplilearn predicts a growing demand for workers with skills in the fields of data science and robotics, and continued demand for AI specialists, salespeople, digital marketing professionals, loan and mortgage officers, and workplace diversity experts.
Simplilearn predicts employers will continue a hybrid of in-office and remote work, including looking across borders to hire the right employees. A 2022 Conference Board study found that one-third of all HR executives continue to be open to hiring remotely for a wide range of positions.
Although the post-Covid hiring surge has slowed, Redmond Magazine says businesses are still having trouble hiring as many on-site IT workers as they’d like, primarily because one-quarter of IT specialists prefer to work fully remotely. Most companies looking to invest in enhanced IT infrastructure and security need professionals who can do hands-on and collaborative work in person.
Using Highly Skilled Contract Workers on a Regular Basis
Another post-pandemic development that will continue into Q1 2023 is employers being more open to bringing in highly skilled contract workers: individuals who can bring specialized skills to projects that have a finite duration.
The talent pool for such projects includes workers who left voluntarily during the pandemic, those who have decided that they prize job flexibility over stability, and some “boomerang employees”—recent retirees who’ve decided they’d like to come back on a limited basis, either for the added income or because they’ve realized they like to work, just not on a full-time basis.
Incorporating Schedule Flexibility into the Job
Management consultants have found another post-pandemic change in work habits driven by the growing emphasis on work-life balance. With full-time employees increasingly voicing their desire for flexible schedules, managers are putting more focus on the quality of employee output rather than the number of hours spent at work.
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Tiffany Sacasas is the executive recruiter of Gertsburg Licata Talent. She can be reached at [email protected] or (216) 435-5800.
Gertsburg Licata is a full-service, strategic growth firm, specializing in business law, M&A advisory and executive talent solutions for entrepreneurs and executives of start-up and middle-market enterprises. Our proven process ensures time and resources are dedicated to identifying the goals of your organization and how your executive talent needs align with that vision. Our expert recruiters partner with you to build your dream management team, securing the best talent to help drive value for your employees and customers. Contact us today to discuss how we can help you secure your next competitive advantage.
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